Russia Upon a Threshold
By Jared Nourse
Vladimir Putin is back in the office he built. Depending upon who you ask, that could mean a
variety of different things. Ask the majority of Russians, and they'll tell you it's a very good
thing. Putin represents stability in Russia - the kind of stability that can bring you out of a
decade of not knowing when you'll get your next paycheck. Stability is a brand in Russia, a
political ideal so high it is unthinkable to challenge, and so Putin found it easy to market himself.
But across the country, there are some remarkable indicators that after 12 years of Putin’s rule,
all is not well. Corruption remains unchecked across the country. A guarantee to the rule of law
depends on who you are. Life expectancy is a mere 66.46 years, lower than every other post-
Soviet country except Tajikistan. Russians die younger than North Koreans. The population
is shrinking and the economy is still all too dependent upon natural resources. The education
system is failing, and opportunities are still largely available only to those with connections or
money.
These problems get a lot of lip service from Putin. But rather than addressing the nation's systemic issues that cause these problems, he prefers to build or exaggerate threats to the Russian people and arrange a decisive response. In fact, Putin’s statism relies on these systemic issues: selective rule of law allowed for control of television and opposition, while corruption gets a wink and a nod for the loyalty of the security services.
The results have had a startling impact on the minds of young Russians. Corruption is
considered a fact of life in Russia; if you get stopped, you pay the bribe. It’s a natural economic
transaction, a friend explained. "Russians expect it. There’s nothing wrong with it. It’s just the
way it is. Nichevo sdyelat'. There’s nothing to be done."
Schoolchildren beyond a certain age turn to private tutors if their family can afford it. A friend
once described to me her English classes at school: "Usually, we go over the homework and then
we speak in Russian." The other day, her teacher had given a lecture on politics in Russian to
the effect that the only important thing in politics was good looks. Nothing else mattered.
Putin is very handsome, or so it is said.
There are bright spots in schools, of course, but students rely on outstanding individual teachers
because they can't on the system. When it comes to finding a berth for higher education,
students have the option to pay school administrators to change their all-important test results
and improve their chances. It's a discouraging system.
Young Russians have found a way to explain the inequality of Putin’s Russia. Eto Rossiya, they
say. This is Russia, it means, but it also means a lot more. This is Russia, it means, and we have
some big problems. But this is Russia, nichevo sdyelat'. There’s nothing to be done.
Cynicism runs very high among young Russians. The political arena is a dirty place and if
you're honest, you stay out. Our leaders may lie and steal, but so do all of yours, they say. It's
a myth that happens to be particularly convenient for the regime, so it's promoted both directly
and indirectly. When people think everyone steals, they're more likely to roll over for you.
Some Russian teenagers have been turning to suicide to deal with the problems that this structure
causes them, an issue that has been getting more attention of late. But the greater part just wants to leave. I once asked my closest Russian friend how many of her own friends wanted to move to other
countries. "Oh, not that many," she replied. "Maybe fifty percent." And they've done their
research, too. America can be difficult to get into. Chances are better with Australia, Canada, or
a number of Western European countries.
But in the meanwhile, young Russians are also discovering a voice of their own. Finding issues
that they care about, they are surprised to learn that they can be heard. As they do, they see how
the effects ripple out and change their surroundings, not in ways that threaten the stability that
Putin built, but in ways that begin to address the problems he’s failed to address. The actions are
simple: attending a rally to express dissent, getting together with a group of friends every week
to discuss not problems, but possible solutions, even just spending time every week taking care of
street animals. My friends and students did all of these things and more during the time I spent
in Russia, contributing what they could towards the growth of civil society in Russia.
With practice, and despite the odds against them, young Russians are slowly disproving that
great myth, nichevo sdyelat'. With time, what they do in greater numbers every year will give a
new meaning to another phrase, as well. Eto Rossiya, they will say, and it will mean, “This is Russia. Look, this is the Russia we built for ourselves.”
Jared Nourse has worked as an English teacher in Vladimir, Russia, and he is currently exploring other regions of the former Soviet Union. He graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Political Science and a concentration in Leadership Studies. Jared's post is part of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
Showing posts with label Guest Post. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guest Post. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
guest post
Who Cares About Obamacare Versus Romneycare?
By Jamal Jefferson
During a recent Republican primary debate in Jacksonville, Florida, Senator Rick Santorum questioned Governor Mitt Romney's electability. Governor Romney, who was the probable nominee at the time (Senator Santorum has won three of the five primaries since), continues to defend his involvement in Massachusetts’s Health Care Insurance Reform, which he engineered while serving as governor of Massachusetts. The issue at hand is that the Massachusetts law is similar in its framework to President Barack Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). Senator Santorum called this a "fundamental issue" that Republicans could not tolerate. The "fundamental issue" is that both the Massachusetts law and the new federal law require individuals to purchase health insurance.
The individual mandate is a feature that is considered by many to be anathema to conservative philosophy. Governor Romney, if he wins the Republican nomination, will have to answer tough questions in the general election as he defends why he would repeal the PPACA when Obama himself claims that Romney's reform was the model for the national bill. In a heated quarrel, Santorum said, "I read an article today [and it] has 15 different items directly in common with Obamacare." Unfortunately, it has been difficult to locate this article.
Nevertheless, I have come across several websites that stack up Obamacare vs. Romneycare. Some of the same issues raised during the passage of PPACA bill appear. Yet some of these points were, and still are, irrelevant.
The national healthcare law is over 2,000 pages long, while the Massachusetts bill is only 70 pages. This is a fact that cannot be disputed, but it does not come as a surprise. As the national bill pertains to all 50 states and not just one, it makes sense that the bill is more complicated, and it follows logically that lawmakers needed more trees to create the bill. PPACA was about 1,000 pages in its genesis, but doubled to a little over 2,000 as lawmakers made amendments in efforts to make sure that the bill appeased both sides of the aisle.
Such length is not unusual for national legislation. Major spending bills frequently run more than 1,000 pages. According to Slate Magazine, "[the 2009] stimulus bill was 1,100 pages. The climate bill that the House passed in June [of 2009] was 1,200 pages. Bill Clinton's 1993 health care plan was famously 1,342 pages long. In 2007, President Bush's [budget bill] ran to 1,482 pages."
Furthermore, if you actually read the bill, or any bill, you will notice that not every page is filled like a textbook, or even an essay with 12 point font and one inch margins. Page numbers can be misleading because of these assumptions. In fact, if you take a look at the number of actual words, the bill is as long as a Harry Potter book (counting substantive language), though probably not as gripping, entertaining and comprehensible if you haven't attended law school.
A shallow comparison of these two separate bills allows us to say that they are indeed different, but nothing definitive about the content. However, in the following weeks I will examine the substantive differences between Obamacare and Romneycare. In the mean time, check out Governor Romeny's plan to repeal and replace PPACA that he presented last May in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Jamal Jefferson works as an aide to a radiologist in Cincinatti, Ohio. He graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Biology. Jamal posts regularly as part of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
By Jamal Jefferson
During a recent Republican primary debate in Jacksonville, Florida, Senator Rick Santorum questioned Governor Mitt Romney's electability. Governor Romney, who was the probable nominee at the time (Senator Santorum has won three of the five primaries since), continues to defend his involvement in Massachusetts’s Health Care Insurance Reform, which he engineered while serving as governor of Massachusetts. The issue at hand is that the Massachusetts law is similar in its framework to President Barack Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). Senator Santorum called this a "fundamental issue" that Republicans could not tolerate. The "fundamental issue" is that both the Massachusetts law and the new federal law require individuals to purchase health insurance.
The individual mandate is a feature that is considered by many to be anathema to conservative philosophy. Governor Romney, if he wins the Republican nomination, will have to answer tough questions in the general election as he defends why he would repeal the PPACA when Obama himself claims that Romney's reform was the model for the national bill. In a heated quarrel, Santorum said, "I read an article today [and it] has 15 different items directly in common with Obamacare." Unfortunately, it has been difficult to locate this article.
Nevertheless, I have come across several websites that stack up Obamacare vs. Romneycare. Some of the same issues raised during the passage of PPACA bill appear. Yet some of these points were, and still are, irrelevant.
The national healthcare law is over 2,000 pages long, while the Massachusetts bill is only 70 pages. This is a fact that cannot be disputed, but it does not come as a surprise. As the national bill pertains to all 50 states and not just one, it makes sense that the bill is more complicated, and it follows logically that lawmakers needed more trees to create the bill. PPACA was about 1,000 pages in its genesis, but doubled to a little over 2,000 as lawmakers made amendments in efforts to make sure that the bill appeased both sides of the aisle.
Such length is not unusual for national legislation. Major spending bills frequently run more than 1,000 pages. According to Slate Magazine, "[the 2009] stimulus bill was 1,100 pages. The climate bill that the House passed in June [of 2009] was 1,200 pages. Bill Clinton's 1993 health care plan was famously 1,342 pages long. In 2007, President Bush's [budget bill] ran to 1,482 pages."
Furthermore, if you actually read the bill, or any bill, you will notice that not every page is filled like a textbook, or even an essay with 12 point font and one inch margins. Page numbers can be misleading because of these assumptions. In fact, if you take a look at the number of actual words, the bill is as long as a Harry Potter book (counting substantive language), though probably not as gripping, entertaining and comprehensible if you haven't attended law school.
A shallow comparison of these two separate bills allows us to say that they are indeed different, but nothing definitive about the content. However, in the following weeks I will examine the substantive differences between Obamacare and Romneycare. In the mean time, check out Governor Romeny's plan to repeal and replace PPACA that he presented last May in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Jamal Jefferson works as an aide to a radiologist in Cincinatti, Ohio. He graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Biology. Jamal posts regularly as part of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
guest post
Whistling Past the Center
By Stefan Ward-Wheten
Bemoaning the failures of the democracy we have is the spectator sport of every election season. The refrain is a familiar one. The two-party system is broken, so goes the logic: left- and right-wing partisans alike are to blame for both the hyperbolic ignorance of the public discourse and the failure of our political institutions to effectively address the acute and growing issues at hand. Columnist David Brooks recently offered up a neat opening statement for the prosecution in the New York Times. "The Democratic and Republican parties used to contain serious internal debates - between moderate and conservative Republicans, between New Democrats and liberals. Neither party does now." Brooks closed by prognosticating that some "third force" would emerge to sweep away the gridlock in Washington in a quasi-Biblical flood.
Right on cue, a third force has indeed emerged from the wings. Americans Elect, a cohort of largely anonymous movers-and-shakers of diverse partisan shades, is organizing a political movement on the sidelines. They've already qualified for the ballot in 14 states, and the campaign, utilizing more than three thousand paid organizers, has raised $22 million so far. The kicker? There isn’t even a candidate yet. Once a slate is assembled, Americans Elect will host the nation's first online primary in June: the candidates will answer questions from AE's members (about 300,000 so far have signed up through the website), and then one will be elected on the Web. Among the prospective hopefuls: Jon Huntsman, former U.S. ambassador to China and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Third parties are often relegated to the butt end of jokes, or at least the quixotic end of political idealism, languishing as they often do under a steep disadvantage in media access, organizing ability and, most crucially, money. Even billionaire Ross Perot, who garnered millions of votes in the 1992 and 1994 elections, garnered mostly derision from his portrayals in the press. This time may be different: Americans Elect appears to have the support, or at least the sympathy, of both the conventional media and of some deep-pocketed donors. Though the full list isn't public, most of known backers come from preeminent business or financial backgrounds. The coverage has been markedly favorable so far, as well. Thomas Friedman, another gadfly from the pages of the Times, eagerly anticipated that the new kids on the proverbial block would "blow the doors off" this election. "Write it down: Americans Elect," Friedman insisted.
One reason for this preemptive welcome, aside from the prospect of spicing up the news cycle, is that rather than distinguishing itself with innovative policies or campaign tactics, Americans Elect presumes to speak from the ideological center. "Our goal is to open up what has been an anticompetitive process to people in the middle who are unsatisfied with the choices of the two parties," declared Kahlil Byrd, CEO of Americans Elect, speaking to Friedman in that same piece. Unlike outsider mavericks like Perot or systemic critics like consumer advocate Ralph Nader, Ackerman and company claim to represent a frustrated but heretofore disenfranchised swath of "middle America" - a new silent majority, if you will.
Such sentiments dovetail nicely with those of commentators like Friedman and Brooks. It is less clear, however, that they will find such a comfortable niche in the current electoral marketplace. Other critics have been less kind to the neophyte caucus. "No one from labor, the clergy, the environmental community, civil or women's rights groups, anti-tax organizations, or any political activist group of any persuasion is on the list," notes Harold Meyerson, writing in the American Prospect. Richard Hasen, a prominent political scholar, pointed out bylaws in the campaign that allow the board and its selected committees to overrule candidate nominations even over members' objections, lambasting the project's leaders for its "democratic deficit."
More partisan critics are quick to point out that the political "center" is a crowded place. "We already have a centrist party," groused Robert Kuttner at the left-liberal online journal AlterNet. "It's called the presidential Democratic Party." By this logic, centrism is based on a misguided belief that both parties have raced towards the radical margins. However, President Obama has aroused the ire of many in his own party by compromising on budgetary and policy issues, and even the more ideologically rigid Republican base sees electability in Mitt Romney’s moderate image. Neither party will cede ground among moderate voters without a fight.
Despite financial heft and media savvy, Americans Elect may well be muscled out of the running by the institutional strength of the 'Big Two,' have many third party hopefuls before them. Still, it's telling that an as-yet-untested electoral model can muster this amount of buzz. For the first time in recent memory, nearly every sentient American is deeply dissatisfied with the political system. Such collective disenchantment, however, disguises fundamental differences in opinion regarding just how to fix things. Staunch left-liberals like Kuttner and Paul Krugman offer a separate diagnosis of current political ills from that of David Brooks, who in turn sees things very differently than libertarians like Ron Paul.
A true "e pluribus unum" moment will not come to pass unless the public is allowed to have honest debates about what they want the United States of America to look like. A high-minded appeal to vague cross-partisan solidarity is unlikely to spark such a moment, and certainly not one that eschews policy in favor of rhetoric. Instead, it requires a transparent and accountable political and business class, an independent and rigorously accurate news media, and a genuine willingness on the part of every citizen to take seriously the task of democratic self-governance. Reformers of any stripe should see to it that these demands, uncomfortable though they are, do not fall by the wayside.
Stefan Ward-Wheten graduated from Williams College in 2011 with majors in Political Science and Comparative Literature. His post is one of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
By Stefan Ward-Wheten
Bemoaning the failures of the democracy we have is the spectator sport of every election season. The refrain is a familiar one. The two-party system is broken, so goes the logic: left- and right-wing partisans alike are to blame for both the hyperbolic ignorance of the public discourse and the failure of our political institutions to effectively address the acute and growing issues at hand. Columnist David Brooks recently offered up a neat opening statement for the prosecution in the New York Times. "The Democratic and Republican parties used to contain serious internal debates - between moderate and conservative Republicans, between New Democrats and liberals. Neither party does now." Brooks closed by prognosticating that some "third force" would emerge to sweep away the gridlock in Washington in a quasi-Biblical flood.
Right on cue, a third force has indeed emerged from the wings. Americans Elect, a cohort of largely anonymous movers-and-shakers of diverse partisan shades, is organizing a political movement on the sidelines. They've already qualified for the ballot in 14 states, and the campaign, utilizing more than three thousand paid organizers, has raised $22 million so far. The kicker? There isn’t even a candidate yet. Once a slate is assembled, Americans Elect will host the nation's first online primary in June: the candidates will answer questions from AE's members (about 300,000 so far have signed up through the website), and then one will be elected on the Web. Among the prospective hopefuls: Jon Huntsman, former U.S. ambassador to China and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Third parties are often relegated to the butt end of jokes, or at least the quixotic end of political idealism, languishing as they often do under a steep disadvantage in media access, organizing ability and, most crucially, money. Even billionaire Ross Perot, who garnered millions of votes in the 1992 and 1994 elections, garnered mostly derision from his portrayals in the press. This time may be different: Americans Elect appears to have the support, or at least the sympathy, of both the conventional media and of some deep-pocketed donors. Though the full list isn't public, most of known backers come from preeminent business or financial backgrounds. The coverage has been markedly favorable so far, as well. Thomas Friedman, another gadfly from the pages of the Times, eagerly anticipated that the new kids on the proverbial block would "blow the doors off" this election. "Write it down: Americans Elect," Friedman insisted.
One reason for this preemptive welcome, aside from the prospect of spicing up the news cycle, is that rather than distinguishing itself with innovative policies or campaign tactics, Americans Elect presumes to speak from the ideological center. "Our goal is to open up what has been an anticompetitive process to people in the middle who are unsatisfied with the choices of the two parties," declared Kahlil Byrd, CEO of Americans Elect, speaking to Friedman in that same piece. Unlike outsider mavericks like Perot or systemic critics like consumer advocate Ralph Nader, Ackerman and company claim to represent a frustrated but heretofore disenfranchised swath of "middle America" - a new silent majority, if you will.
Such sentiments dovetail nicely with those of commentators like Friedman and Brooks. It is less clear, however, that they will find such a comfortable niche in the current electoral marketplace. Other critics have been less kind to the neophyte caucus. "No one from labor, the clergy, the environmental community, civil or women's rights groups, anti-tax organizations, or any political activist group of any persuasion is on the list," notes Harold Meyerson, writing in the American Prospect. Richard Hasen, a prominent political scholar, pointed out bylaws in the campaign that allow the board and its selected committees to overrule candidate nominations even over members' objections, lambasting the project's leaders for its "democratic deficit."
More partisan critics are quick to point out that the political "center" is a crowded place. "We already have a centrist party," groused Robert Kuttner at the left-liberal online journal AlterNet. "It's called the presidential Democratic Party." By this logic, centrism is based on a misguided belief that both parties have raced towards the radical margins. However, President Obama has aroused the ire of many in his own party by compromising on budgetary and policy issues, and even the more ideologically rigid Republican base sees electability in Mitt Romney’s moderate image. Neither party will cede ground among moderate voters without a fight.
Despite financial heft and media savvy, Americans Elect may well be muscled out of the running by the institutional strength of the 'Big Two,' have many third party hopefuls before them. Still, it's telling that an as-yet-untested electoral model can muster this amount of buzz. For the first time in recent memory, nearly every sentient American is deeply dissatisfied with the political system. Such collective disenchantment, however, disguises fundamental differences in opinion regarding just how to fix things. Staunch left-liberals like Kuttner and Paul Krugman offer a separate diagnosis of current political ills from that of David Brooks, who in turn sees things very differently than libertarians like Ron Paul.
A true "e pluribus unum" moment will not come to pass unless the public is allowed to have honest debates about what they want the United States of America to look like. A high-minded appeal to vague cross-partisan solidarity is unlikely to spark such a moment, and certainly not one that eschews policy in favor of rhetoric. Instead, it requires a transparent and accountable political and business class, an independent and rigorously accurate news media, and a genuine willingness on the part of every citizen to take seriously the task of democratic self-governance. Reformers of any stripe should see to it that these demands, uncomfortable though they are, do not fall by the wayside.
Stefan Ward-Wheten graduated from Williams College in 2011 with majors in Political Science and Comparative Literature. His post is one of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
Friday, February 10, 2012
guest post
Santorum Rising
By Meredith Annex
Every time Romney's imminent nomination is banally announced, something seems to happen that re-opens the fray. This week, that 'something' was Rick Santorum's three-fold victory in Minnesota, Colorado, and the Missouri "beauty contest."
Colorado and Minnesota are both states that Romney won in the 2008 primary season. As Maggie Haberman of Politico notes, "four years ago, when [Romney] won Colorado and Minnesota, John McCain was the likely nominee, and the former Massachusetts governor was seen as the electable conservative alternative." Now, Romney is the likely nominee, and the 'electable alternate' is, well, questionable. Until a few days ago, I would have said Newt Gingrich: a man with a proven track record of upholding Republic ideals, if not family values. But something, perhaps the growth of the Tea Party, has led caucus voters to find themselves with Santorum.
Even more worrying, in this light, are the results in Missouri. Sure, the Missouri poll doesn’t result in delegates. But in 2008, John McCain, the front-runner and by most standards the moderate candidate, was voted as Mr. Missouri. How, then, can we interpret the fact that Missouri finds Santorum prettier than Romney?
Really, the most certain conclusion is that voters are still looking for alternatives to Mitt Romney. In the October Straw Poll, Nevada voters rode the concurrent Herman Cain wave, giving the pizza guru a 31% approval to Romney’s 29%. Similarly, Public Policy Polling found in August 2011 that, on the verge of Rick Perry’s rise, Coloradans were equally split between Perry and Romney. Given the historic eagerness of these voters to support alternatives to Romney, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to find Santorum topping these caucus results. That’s not a silver lining for the Romney campaign, but it’s not a resounding endorsement for Rick either.
A similarly ambiguous factor is the role of the recent news outbreaks in the United States regarding abortion rights. Politico’s Heberman notes that the Susan G. Komen/Planned Parenthood controversies likely motivated support from the ultra-right, whose political positions tend to favour Santorum. If news coverage actually had a significant role in shaping the primary results, then this goes to show the volatility of every candidate’s popularity right now.
A final factor to consider is, of course, money and campaign effort. The Washington Post reports that, "Gingrich did not compete in Missouri and spent limited time in Colorado and Minnesota. He looked past Tuesday's contests and instead campaigned in Ohio, one of several delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday." The Post's analysis may explain Gingrich’s lower performance, but cannot account for Romney's poor showing despite having the best-funded campaign. Perhaps, here, Santorum is on the money when he stated: "If money made the difference, we wouldn’t have won four primaries so far...We’re not running for CEO of this country – we’re running for someone who can lead this country."
Given this, what should we look for going into Super Tuesday on March 6? Romney’s superior campaign finance may give him a slight edge, but so far this hasn’t translated into clear-cut victories. The polls also indicate a bumpy few weeks. An October poll has Maine voters supporting Herman Cain over Mitt Romney, suggesting that this state’s caucus on February 11th could easily follow a similar pattern to Minnesota and Colorado. Any “surprise” victories for Gingrich, Santorum, or both in the caucuses leading up to Super Tuesday would be yet another obstacle for Romney’s nomination and would make the Republican field that much messier. Yet winning in Maine, Michigan, and Arizona can’t ensure a victory for Gingrich and won’t clear a pathway for Santorum either. Super Tuesday has the potential for some very close races that could change the tides in this Republican primary season. In the meantime, I’d suggest keeping up with roller-coaster headlines and finding a comfortable seat.
Meredith Annex is pursuing a master's degree in Environmental Economics and Climate Change at the London School of Economics. She graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Economics and concentration in Environmental Studies. Her post is one of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
By Meredith Annex
Every time Romney's imminent nomination is banally announced, something seems to happen that re-opens the fray. This week, that 'something' was Rick Santorum's three-fold victory in Minnesota, Colorado, and the Missouri "beauty contest."
Colorado and Minnesota are both states that Romney won in the 2008 primary season. As Maggie Haberman of Politico notes, "four years ago, when [Romney] won Colorado and Minnesota, John McCain was the likely nominee, and the former Massachusetts governor was seen as the electable conservative alternative." Now, Romney is the likely nominee, and the 'electable alternate' is, well, questionable. Until a few days ago, I would have said Newt Gingrich: a man with a proven track record of upholding Republic ideals, if not family values. But something, perhaps the growth of the Tea Party, has led caucus voters to find themselves with Santorum.
Even more worrying, in this light, are the results in Missouri. Sure, the Missouri poll doesn’t result in delegates. But in 2008, John McCain, the front-runner and by most standards the moderate candidate, was voted as Mr. Missouri. How, then, can we interpret the fact that Missouri finds Santorum prettier than Romney?
Really, the most certain conclusion is that voters are still looking for alternatives to Mitt Romney. In the October Straw Poll, Nevada voters rode the concurrent Herman Cain wave, giving the pizza guru a 31% approval to Romney’s 29%. Similarly, Public Policy Polling found in August 2011 that, on the verge of Rick Perry’s rise, Coloradans were equally split between Perry and Romney. Given the historic eagerness of these voters to support alternatives to Romney, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to find Santorum topping these caucus results. That’s not a silver lining for the Romney campaign, but it’s not a resounding endorsement for Rick either.
A similarly ambiguous factor is the role of the recent news outbreaks in the United States regarding abortion rights. Politico’s Heberman notes that the Susan G. Komen/Planned Parenthood controversies likely motivated support from the ultra-right, whose political positions tend to favour Santorum. If news coverage actually had a significant role in shaping the primary results, then this goes to show the volatility of every candidate’s popularity right now.
A final factor to consider is, of course, money and campaign effort. The Washington Post reports that, "Gingrich did not compete in Missouri and spent limited time in Colorado and Minnesota. He looked past Tuesday's contests and instead campaigned in Ohio, one of several delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday." The Post's analysis may explain Gingrich’s lower performance, but cannot account for Romney's poor showing despite having the best-funded campaign. Perhaps, here, Santorum is on the money when he stated: "If money made the difference, we wouldn’t have won four primaries so far...We’re not running for CEO of this country – we’re running for someone who can lead this country."
Given this, what should we look for going into Super Tuesday on March 6? Romney’s superior campaign finance may give him a slight edge, but so far this hasn’t translated into clear-cut victories. The polls also indicate a bumpy few weeks. An October poll has Maine voters supporting Herman Cain over Mitt Romney, suggesting that this state’s caucus on February 11th could easily follow a similar pattern to Minnesota and Colorado. Any “surprise” victories for Gingrich, Santorum, or both in the caucuses leading up to Super Tuesday would be yet another obstacle for Romney’s nomination and would make the Republican field that much messier. Yet winning in Maine, Michigan, and Arizona can’t ensure a victory for Gingrich and won’t clear a pathway for Santorum either. Super Tuesday has the potential for some very close races that could change the tides in this Republican primary season. In the meantime, I’d suggest keeping up with roller-coaster headlines and finding a comfortable seat.
Meredith Annex is pursuing a master's degree in Environmental Economics and Climate Change at the London School of Economics. She graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Economics and concentration in Environmental Studies. Her post is one of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
guest post
A Fallacy of Comparison
By Jamal Jefferson
In President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, health care was scarcely mentioned. Only in a segment of his speech in which he speaks about the oil spills off the Gulf of Mexico does he add, "I will not go back to the days when health insurance companies had unchecked power to cancel your policy, deny you coverage, or charge women differently from men."
Meanwhile on the Republican presidential trail, the candidates have not been shy on the matter. The remaining four candidates all vows to repeal the bill once elected as President. And if the front runner of the Republican Party, Mitt Romney, does in fact become the Republican Party nominee, this issue will be one of the hot topics of debate, as many claim the Massachusetts health care reform law ("Romneycare") is the framework of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare").
Outside of politics, some in academia are looking at the health care problems in a different light. Instead of focusing on the issues of clinical medicine, some are focusing of the issues of preventative medicine. But the problems are interdigitated between clinical and preventative health and solutions will not come from one branch of medicine or the other. Therefore, strong proponents of preventative health may also miss the mark when it comes to finding truly effective solutions to the US’s health issues.
On December 8th, 2011, Dr. Elizabeth H. Bradley, professor of public health at Yale and faculty director of its Global Health Leadership Institute, and Lauren Taylor, a program manager at Yale’s Global Health Leadership Institute, wrote an op-ed in the New York Times entitled "To Fix Health, Help the Poor." The authors point out that the US spends more on health care than any other country, yet still ranks low in life expectancy, infant mortality, and maternal mortality among developed nations. They claim that the US does not spend enough on social programs, which in turn relates to our sub-par health care statistics. According to Dr. Bradley’s research, in 2005, "Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark dedicated 33 percent to 38 percent" of their gross domestic product to health and social services combined, compared to the US, which only spent 29 percent. But is it so easy to look at these numbers and simply conclude that spending more on social services would improve US health statistics?
It is doubtful that the reallocation of funds from health care to social programming will have a significant effect on our world health rankings. The article did not present any "real" or applicable examples of reallocation and relied primarily on a macroeconomic approach which would naturally support their conclusion. In fact, the issues preventing the US from improving their world health rankings are far more complicated. When describing the factors particular to health inequity among women in Detroit, where white women experience 4.6 deaths per 1,000 live births while black women experience 16.6 deaths per 1,000 live births, Dr. Talat Danish of the Wayne County Health Department suggested six different issues: 1) unemployment, 2) a lack of education, 3) women being socially isolated, 4) poverty, 5) a lack of gender equity in pay, and 6) the social perception of women. These deeply rooted issues are the crux of many of our health disparities in America. The article did not provide enough evidence to support the rudimentary claim that more money in social programming will sufficiently tackle these complicated issues plaguing America.
The authors' macroeconomic stance bears fallacy because it compares the United States with other countries with dissimilar health care systems. They do not mention that developed countries like Sweden and France have some kind of basic health care systems funded by taxes and levies, allowing citizens access to health care free of charge (not including taxes, of course). For example, preventative health measures are more easily accessed in countries with universal health care systems because they do not pay out pocket for health services. The fundamental differences in how the health care systems work do not allow for accurate systematic comparisons, leading the authors to inaccurate conclusions.
I agree that social programming is needed to improve our health disparities in our country. However, the authors’ large scaled comparison is too simplified for such a complex issue.
Jamal Jefferson works as an aide to a radiologist in Cincinatti, Ohio. He graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Biology. Jamal's post is the first in an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
By Jamal Jefferson
In President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, health care was scarcely mentioned. Only in a segment of his speech in which he speaks about the oil spills off the Gulf of Mexico does he add, "I will not go back to the days when health insurance companies had unchecked power to cancel your policy, deny you coverage, or charge women differently from men."
Meanwhile on the Republican presidential trail, the candidates have not been shy on the matter. The remaining four candidates all vows to repeal the bill once elected as President. And if the front runner of the Republican Party, Mitt Romney, does in fact become the Republican Party nominee, this issue will be one of the hot topics of debate, as many claim the Massachusetts health care reform law ("Romneycare") is the framework of Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("Obamacare").
Outside of politics, some in academia are looking at the health care problems in a different light. Instead of focusing on the issues of clinical medicine, some are focusing of the issues of preventative medicine. But the problems are interdigitated between clinical and preventative health and solutions will not come from one branch of medicine or the other. Therefore, strong proponents of preventative health may also miss the mark when it comes to finding truly effective solutions to the US’s health issues.
On December 8th, 2011, Dr. Elizabeth H. Bradley, professor of public health at Yale and faculty director of its Global Health Leadership Institute, and Lauren Taylor, a program manager at Yale’s Global Health Leadership Institute, wrote an op-ed in the New York Times entitled "To Fix Health, Help the Poor." The authors point out that the US spends more on health care than any other country, yet still ranks low in life expectancy, infant mortality, and maternal mortality among developed nations. They claim that the US does not spend enough on social programs, which in turn relates to our sub-par health care statistics. According to Dr. Bradley’s research, in 2005, "Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark dedicated 33 percent to 38 percent" of their gross domestic product to health and social services combined, compared to the US, which only spent 29 percent. But is it so easy to look at these numbers and simply conclude that spending more on social services would improve US health statistics?
It is doubtful that the reallocation of funds from health care to social programming will have a significant effect on our world health rankings. The article did not present any "real" or applicable examples of reallocation and relied primarily on a macroeconomic approach which would naturally support their conclusion. In fact, the issues preventing the US from improving their world health rankings are far more complicated. When describing the factors particular to health inequity among women in Detroit, where white women experience 4.6 deaths per 1,000 live births while black women experience 16.6 deaths per 1,000 live births, Dr. Talat Danish of the Wayne County Health Department suggested six different issues: 1) unemployment, 2) a lack of education, 3) women being socially isolated, 4) poverty, 5) a lack of gender equity in pay, and 6) the social perception of women. These deeply rooted issues are the crux of many of our health disparities in America. The article did not provide enough evidence to support the rudimentary claim that more money in social programming will sufficiently tackle these complicated issues plaguing America.
The authors' macroeconomic stance bears fallacy because it compares the United States with other countries with dissimilar health care systems. They do not mention that developed countries like Sweden and France have some kind of basic health care systems funded by taxes and levies, allowing citizens access to health care free of charge (not including taxes, of course). For example, preventative health measures are more easily accessed in countries with universal health care systems because they do not pay out pocket for health services. The fundamental differences in how the health care systems work do not allow for accurate systematic comparisons, leading the authors to inaccurate conclusions.
I agree that social programming is needed to improve our health disparities in our country. However, the authors’ large scaled comparison is too simplified for such a complex issue.
Jamal Jefferson works as an aide to a radiologist in Cincinatti, Ohio. He graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Biology. Jamal's post is the first in an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!
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