Dear Readers,

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Leo

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Sunday, October 30, 2011

2011.10.29 Weekly Address: We Can't Wait to Create Jobs

Occupy the Government
By Leo Brown
[President Obama's Weekly Address]

It might seem that President Obama is pandering to the Occupy Wall Street movement with his recent rhetoric. He wants to tax the rich to finance our nation's future. He wants to live in a country where everyone, not only those who have already made a fortune, has an opportunity to prosper.

Of course, the President has been saying these things since before he took office, and especially in the last year during the debt fight. He repeats his conviction in this week's address.

Not long ago, I suggested that the President's agenda didn't entirely align with OWS. He has since issued an executive order to ease the burden of student debt, finally enacting legislation that Congress passed in 2010.

We are right to push the man, to ask more of him, and to be angry when he fails to deliver. But anyone who thinks that President Obama is an enemy of the cause has their head in the sand.

In this widely circulated column, Thomas Friedman describes the revolting relationship between banks and government as "a forum for legalized bribery." Even the shortest fry can see that our society is guided by perverse incentive and controlled by the corrupt and ignorant.

So the anarchist contingent of OWS would nail me to the wall for suggesting this, but I'll say it anyway. In the 2010 Congressional elections, the Tea Party won a great many seats in the House. What if OWS tries to do the same in 2012? We don't have much to lose, and now would seem to be the moment to seize. Tea Party representatives are politically weak and verifiably silly. A majority of Americans sympathize with OWS. Occupations are shooting up like dandelions. Instead of Tea Party obstruction, an OWS caucus could empower President Obama to be the progressive hero that we want and need.

Or, OWS could rally behind Jill Stein for President. Ms. Stein, a serious and immensely likable Green Party stalwart, could very well scoop up OWS momentum and usher a Republican into the White House.

The outstanding question is whether OWS can stomach an infiltration of the government. Clearly, some would prefer revolution and will settle for nothing less. But the Tea Party has shown us that a concerted effort to win seats can make an enormous difference in the workings of government. And a majority of Americans, I predict, would not support a revolution.

OWS continues to amass an impressive trove of political capital and, in a brilliant tactical move, has spent none at all. As the world unites around a cause of equity and justice, political beasts will be brought to their knees. But who, or what, will stand before them? This is for the 99% to decide.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

An Immigration Thought Experiment

Most Russians I encounter hold some strong views about illegal immigration. As Mexicans pick our tomatoes, Uzbeks, Tajiks, and other Central Asians work their construction sites and supply other low-wage labor. One interpretation of this situation is that they do a mediocre job for cheap, thus degrading the quality of Russian life and taking jobs away from citizens.

Our situation in America is rather different, regardless of editorial spin. The government does not hire Mexican farm workers, and few would argue that their work is inferior. Disgruntled Americans focus on the notion that they are keeping wages low and unemployment up.

As I discussed in my last post, this interpretation has been complicated by evidence that unemployed Americans do not accept farm labor when it is available. It is more profitable, and more reliable, to simply collect unemployment insurance. This does not seem quite right.

So I've been thinking about what the economy would look like without undocumented immigrants. For the sake of simplicity, I'll focus on agricultural labor. Here is my take: an intuitive, thought-experiment economic analysis.

*Farm wages rise. Compensation needs to be more attractive than unemployment insurance.
*Without government assistance, many farms are unable to afford the new cost of labor and go out of business. Alternatively, the government provides subsidies to aid this transition.
*American food prices rise, reflecting the high cost of labor and scarcity of domestic farms.
*Cheap food from abroad fills American markets. Food "Made in America" is now a luxury.
*Most Americans end up eating food grown in Mexico, picked by the same Mexicans who used to work here.

The demand for domestic food will never go away, but in such a scenario, it would shift to the rich and the xenophobic. Because of undocumented immigrant labor, most Americans can afford food that is grown on our soil. Without Mexican workers, some more Americans might have jobs, but they wouldn't be able to afford a tomato picked north of the border.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

2011.10.22 Weekly Address: Bringing Home Our Troops

The Problems Money Won't Solve
By Leo Brown  

President Obama has announced that, after a decade of war and deep involvement in foreign military affairs, "the nation we need to rebuild is our own." We are at a turning point, the President suggests - Muammar Gadaffi and Osama bin Laden have been killed, American troops will leave Iraq by the holidays - and from this point, we can anticipate a more peaceful and prosperous future.

It's a remarkably pragmatic idea. We've made some progress towards our military goals, but meanwhile, our country has hit the fan, and so we'll take this moment to reconsider our game plan.

In theory, the conclusion of the Iraq War should free up some dollars that could be spent solving some of our biggest challenges: the deficit, unemployment, student debt, the education system, and infrastructure. Obviously, students shouldn't have to borrow thousands of dollars to attend a university. Schools shouldn't need to choose between a music department and a gym. And no one should have to wonder whether it's best to buy heat or medicine. We can spend our Iraq money here.

But most fifty-year-olds will never move a touchscreen so nimbly as their daughters. What are they to do when the plant shuts down?

Green and advanced manufacturing can replace some of these twentieth-century jobs. But that might not be enough. So many industries no longer need manual labor. On top of this, advanced technology, touted as our economic savior, often is designed specifically to eliminate human workers. This is their definition of success (see: E-ZPass).

Unemployed college graduates are in trouble, but their parents have it worse. The world is working quickly to make their skills obsolete. And this doesn't only affect people who are approaching retirement: millions of new adults remain undereducated and poor. Fifty years ago, they (the white and male) could have found a job in the plant. But Americans today are not going to compete with illegal immigrants for farm work; they can make more money by collecting unemployment. So what should they do instead? Start a small business? Open a wine shop? Try it. See what happens.

Our economy has seen paradigm shifts before. More than two centuries ago, Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin. Until then, cotton was not a very productive crop; though it is easy to grow in the South, it took too long to pick out all the seeds. This was no longer a hindrance, and the American economic capacity skyrocketed.

Likewise, if some genius (or anyone else) can come with an idea to put our undereducated labor to work, a project that truly requires their skills, our economy will once again have a future. For now, we will continue to cannibalize our workforce, churning out "smart" technology that puts the common man out of a job.

It's a fast-paced world and an exciting time to be alive, but we need to work with what we've got. Our current game plan will leave a vast segment of the population unemployed and disenfranchised. This is a problem that money alone will never solve.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

two pertinent op-eds

The New York Times has published a couple of solid pieces that pertain to some of my earlier posts.  In "The Great Restoration," David Brooks suggests that most Americans have learned from the mistakes of the last decade and are changing their financial strategies. Debt is no longer widely viewed as an effective financial strategy, and families are now "repairing the economic moral fabric" of our nation. In short, there's no such thing as a free lunch. Mr. Brooks refers to a variety of polls and demographic data in his article and presents a solid case.

What I find especially interesting is that, according to this notion, we don't need massive education reform to solve our financial problems, as I suggested back in July. Because while our economy is immensely complicated, sticking to a few basic principles can go far. Although, if we taught these principles to children and young adults, perhaps another generation would not need to learn the hard way.

The other article, "In Defense of the Back-Room Deal," written by Jordan Tama, provides a concise historical overview of secrecy in Congressional negotiations. Mr. Tama argues that shielded from the media limelight, politicians with opposing views are sometimes able to achieve logical, intelligent compromise. As I argued in this post and many prior, our political system could work so well if, somehow, politicians were not able to communicate with their constituents so easily and regularly. Balance is essential, but less time on Twitter and less time delivering wrote, inflammatory sound-bytes would definitely help to move things along. Then, if we're not happy with the results, we'll throw them out of office.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

2011.10.15 Weekly Address: Made in America

The 99%'s Silent Majority
By Leo Brown
[President Obama's Weekly Address]

I don't think anyone seriously doubts that the American Jobs Act would help our economy, even if some (Paul Krugman, et al) wish it were bigger and bolder.  And the Occupy Wall Street protests have revealed a groundswell of popular discontent with the status quo, finally expressed on the streets: passionate blogging bolstered by flesh and sweat.  At a glance, this might seem like a perfect storm, a harbinger of change.

In fact, OWS supporters have lambasted President Obama for suggesting that he is aligned with their movement.  Even if they prefer him to a Republican, many frustrated liberals wish he had done more. Many believe that because of his desire to compromise, America remains mired in a hot mess of unemployment and inequality.

This may be true. But it only tells half of the story, a half that is cemented in the past. What about the American Jobs Act? Can we agree that is a good idea?

We would be irresponsible not to pass the American Jobs Act, but it does not address what (I think) OWS is about. For example, one unifying point seems to be that so many Americans are swamped with student loans that they might never be able to pay off. Or, to put it in broader terms, one expects a baseline level of success upon completing higher education. Protesters, many of whom are college-educated and unemployed, feel that they have been swindled. They can hardly contribute to economic growth or invest in their future burdened by such debt. But the American Jobs Act does not address this issue, or higher education at all, except for an allocation of $5 billion to modernize community colleges.

Another key OWS point, that Wall Street caused the financial crisis and escaped without a scratch, is not at all a focus of the American Jobs Act. The government seems not to have held the financial sector responsible or discouraged them from repeating the same sins. The Dodd-Frank financial reform bill has been a flop. Wall Street chiefs and CEOs continue to line their pockets with bonuses and "golden goodbyes." The big banks may be too big to fail, but they aren't too big to be grounded. Wall Street is spoiled rotten, and the parents are too busy bickering to notice or care.

Instead, the American Jobs Act focuses on traditionally blue-collar priorities: providing tax relief for small businesses, investing in public works projects, extending unemployment insurance, and hiring government employees. Many of these initiatives will help the OWS demographic, but they don't really get to the point.

In the next few months, we will see whether President Obama and OWS can form a powerful alliance to advance the progressive cause. But the current disconnect raises another fundamental question: why is OWS comprised largely of college graduates, anyway? Most Americans do not have college degrees, and these high school graduates and dropouts are the ones who bear the brunt of the recession. Why are they not camped out in Zuccotti Park? What is happening?

College graduates have every right to be angry with their lot, but the fact remains that their less-educated brethren are more numerous and, on the whole, saddled with deeper economic troubles. The plight of these Americans who would benefit most from the American Jobs Act provide a potential link between President Obama and OWS. For now, they remain a silent majority, a massive yet unseen shadow, the fruits of a 20th-century formula gone sour. Can OWS link arms with this majority and blindside a dysfunctional system?

Monday, October 10, 2011

2011.10.08 Weekly Address: Making Your Voice Heard on the American Jobs Act

During the past week, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and village idiot Sarah Palin both announced that they would not be running for president. Thereby, the Republican presidential field is set. So except in the unlikely event that former Utah governor John Huntsman, Jr. wins the primary, we now know that President Obama will face a deeply flawed sack in the 2012 election.

This will change things. Since the 2010 elections, when Republicans took control of the House, they have been putting their chips on government failure. So goes the tired theory: if these four years are miserable, the American people will demand a new president.

This might have worked. But it depended on a broad swath of the electorate getting excited, really amped, about their nominee. And no one is going to get excited about Mitt Romney.

Who would? Who could? It's not that he's a Mormon, though this will certainly turn off extremist Christians. The problem is that he changes his political persuasion depending on the election, and as a result, he is impossible to like. He is uncomfortable in his own skin because he sheds it whenever his aides, or the media, suggest. He's the caricature of a flip-flopping politician.

Sure, many Republicans will choke down their reflux and vote against President Obama - that is, if they can drag themselves to the polls after their candidate's relentless campaign of humiliating, emasculating ass-kissing.

And then there's the rest of the field. I could detail their flaws as candidates, but suffice to say, they are all too conservative, and, in most cases, too inexperienced to run a serious campaign against a centrist, incumbent president. The liberal youth and intelligentsia would come out in droves to vote against Rick Santorum, who proudly bears the flag of homophobic vitriol. No one takes Michele Bachmann seriously following the HPV vaccine fiasco. Herman Cain has never been elected to political office and offers few new ideas. And somehow, after a splashy entrance into the race, Rick Perry has managed to anger virtually all possible constituencies.

In order to see their strategy through to fruition, Republicans in Congress would have to ride a groundswell of enthusiasm, sweeping President Obama and his henchmen out of office in a vindication of conservative values. But with one of these individuals as the standard-bearer? America isn't going to buy it.

This week, President Obama asks Congress to pass his jobs bill once again. But now that we know the field of presidential candidates, the Republican trump card rings hollow. Now that we see the alternatives to President Obama, there is no longer a reason to replace him.

Of course, the Republican strategy will probably not, in fact, change. I expect a long year of forced enthusiasm and awkward rallies as Mitt Romney tries to fire up a crowd. Alternatively, we will have a year of hilarious debates as Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann attempts to outwit President Obama.

The Republican strategy will not change, but the President need not fear. We now know that the opposition has little to offer, and he has even less to gain by appeasing them. There is nothing Republicans can do, in this election cycle, to be taken seriously by moderate and liberal America. 

Finally, hopefully, the President can relax and say more of what he really thinks. Because now that the Republican presidential field have outed themselves, he need not worry about looking comparatively extreme, nutty, or disingenuous. Perhaps, as the opposition comes into focus, more citizens will realize how much worse things could be.

Monday, October 3, 2011

2011.10.01 Weekly Address: Fighting for the American Jobs Act

Going on three weeks, President Obama defends the American Jobs Act, and Congress continues to not pass it. The President offers a fair point: if members of Congress have a problem with the legislation, they should present an alternative, or perhaps revisions. Instead, all parties are talking to the media, referring vaguely to the bill's shortcomings, and, apparently, ignoring each other.

It's not at all surprising that Republicans do not want to pass the bill precisely as written. And though he made a show of demanding immediate passage, President Obama has invited Republicans to present their preferred changes. Some Democrats have expressed concern with the bill, and they, too, have the power to offer a revised version. What is stopping them?

Maybe, the problem is that most of these candidates travel to their home districts every weekend to appear at community events. Why do they do this? What if they did this every other weekend? They could spend the balance of their time in Washington negotiating a jobs plan. It's nice to see your Congressman at the county fair, but would you rather have a job?

Some suspect that Republicans are holding up this bill in order to make the President look stupid and inept. This would increase their chances of reelection, so goes conventional theory. But with their approval rating astonishingly low, Congressional incumbents surely realize that their jobs are at stake, regardless of party, if they continue to bicker. Why don't they do their jobs?

There is so much at stake, and yet, our national decision-makers are lodged inextricably in a system that breeds and rewards inefficiency. Must this be?

Here's one idea to kick around: if politicians were disconnected from their constituents as in the days before electricity, they might be more inclined to do their jobs. Rather than tweeting, they might converse. Floor speeches would no longer serve the express purpose of clogging C-SPAN and cable with sound bytes. Rather, Congressmen would take to the floor to address their colleagues. Without bloggers to parse every word, they could speak freely. Perhaps their ideologies would grow and wiggle. Not so today.

The past is gone, but lessons can be learned from earlier imperfect times. The fact is, in the present environment, time spent by politicians addressing the media is time wasted. There is nothing to hear. They will say what they've been told to say, and what they've already said repeatedly.

Members of Congress need to be locked in a room and told that they will have no photo ops, no time to spend with campaign donors, until they have negotiated a revision of the American Jobs Act. It would be only fair.