weekly response

Santorum Rising
By Meredith Annex

Every time Romney's imminent nomination is banally announced, something seems to happen that re-opens the fray. This week, that 'something' was Rick Santorum's three-fold victory in Minnesota, Colorado, and the Missouri "beauty contest."

Colorado and Minnesota are both states that Romney won in the 2008 primary season. As Maggie Haberman of Politico notes, "four years ago, when [Romney] won Colorado and Minnesota, John McCain was the likely nominee, and the former Massachusetts governor was seen as the electable conservative alternative." Now, Romney is the likely nominee, and the 'electable alternate' is, well, questionable. Until a few days ago, I would have said Newt Gingrich: a man with a proven track record of upholding Republic ideals, if not family values. But something, perhaps the growth of the Tea Party, has led caucus voters to find themselves with Santorum.

Even more worrying, in this light, are the results in Missouri. Sure, the Missouri poll doesn’t result in delegates. But in 2008, John McCain, the front-runner and by most standards the moderate candidate, was voted as Mr. Missouri. How, then, can we interpret the fact that Missouri finds Santorum prettier than Romney?

Really, the most certain conclusion is that voters are still looking for alternatives to Mitt Romney. In the October Straw Poll, Nevada voters rode the concurrent Herman Cain wave, giving the pizza guru a 31% approval to Romney’s 29%. Similarly, Public Policy Polling found in August 2011 that, on the verge of Rick Perry’s rise, Coloradans were equally split between Perry and Romney. Given the historic eagerness of these voters to support alternatives to Romney, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to find Santorum topping these caucus results. That’s not a silver lining for the Romney campaign, but it’s not a resounding endorsement for Rick either.

A similarly ambiguous factor is the role of the recent news outbreaks in the United States regarding abortion rights. Politico’s Heberman notes that the Susan G. Komen/Planned Parenthood controversies likely motivated support from the ultra-right, whose political positions tend to favour Santorum. If news coverage actually had a significant role in shaping the primary results, then this goes to show the volatility of every candidate’s popularity right now.

A final factor to consider is, of course, money and campaign effort. The Washington Post reports that, "Gingrich did not compete in Missouri and spent limited time in Colorado and Minnesota. He looked past Tuesday's contests and instead campaigned in Ohio, one of several delegate-rich states voting on Super Tuesday." The Post's analysis may explain Gingrich’s lower performance, but cannot account for Romney's poor showing despite having the best-funded campaign. Perhaps, here, Santorum is on the money when he stated: "If money made the difference, we wouldn’t have won four primaries so far...We’re not running for CEO of this country – we’re running for someone who can lead this country."

Given this, what should we look for going into Super Tuesday on March 6? Romney’s superior campaign finance may give him a slight edge, but so far this hasn’t translated into clear-cut victories. The polls also indicate a bumpy few weeks. An October poll has Maine voters supporting Herman Cain over Mitt Romney, suggesting that this state’s caucus on February 11th could easily follow a similar pattern to Minnesota and Colorado. Any “surprise” victories for Gingrich, Santorum, or both in the caucuses leading up to Super Tuesday would be yet another obstacle for Romney’s nomination and would make the Republican field that much messier. Yet winning in Maine, Michigan, and Arizona can’t ensure a victory for Gingrich and won’t clear a pathway for Santorum either. Super Tuesday has the potential for some very close races that could change the tides in this Republican primary season. In the meantime, I’d suggest keeping up with roller-coaster headlines and finding a comfortable seat.


Meredith Annex is pursuing a master's degree in Environmental Economics and Climate Change at the London School of Economics. She graduated from Williams College in 2011 with a major in Economics and concentration in Environmental Studies. Her post is one of an ongoing "Guest Blogger" series. If you're interested in writing, do click the link and be in touch!